With the NFL season in full swing, many fans are looking for ways to get an edge in predicting games and making picks. Two popular methods are using NFL public picks and NFL computer picks. But why use these over just relying on your own football knowledge and intuition? There are some good reasons:
Research has shown that consensus picks, which average predictions from many different experts and systems, are more accurate on average than individual picks. This “wisdom of the crowd” effect comes from canceling out individual biases and mistakes. NFL computer picks can also be highly accurate if the model is well-designed, as computers objectively calculate probabilities. By combining computer models with consensus averaging, accuracy improves even more. So on average, consensus and computer picks will be more accurate than most fans going on gut instinct alone.
More Consistent Results
While your individual picks may be good some weeks and bad other weeks, consensus and computer picks deliver more consistent results. Even professional experts have ups and downs. But by drawing on multiple opinions and advanced models, consensus and computer predictions smooth out those ups and downs. So you can expect solid pick accuracy week after week.
Fans can sometimes be biased by emotion when picking games involving their favorite teams. They may pick with their heart rather than their head. But consensus and computer picks remove all emotion from the equation and only rely on cold, hard data analysis. This gives you an unbiased assessment of each game.
Quantifies Public Perception
Consensus picks show you which teams the general public is favoring in Las Vegas betting lines and betting percentages each week. This helps reveal situations where public perception is out of alignment with reality. You can then avoid overhyped teams and identify promising underdog opportunities.
Saves Research Time
Doing deep analytical research on all 16 upcoming NFL games every week requires significant time and effort. NFL consensus and computer systems distill all of the available data, stats, trends, injuries, and matchups down into a simple winning percentage for each game. This efficient analysis saves you hours of work each week.
Provides a Starting Point
You don’t have to fully give up picking games yourself. Consensus and computer picks can simply provide an objective starting point for your own analysis. From there you can still apply your personal football knowledge and intuition. Think of it as getting advice from a friend before making your final decisions.
Casual NFL fans often overreact week-to-week, dramatically changing predictions based on the latest news. But consensus and computer picks change more gradually as data builds over time. This disciplined approach prevents you from making rash picks you’ll regret. Sticking with consensus over emotions takes discipline, but pays off.
Quickly Compares Game Odds
Seeing win probability percentages for each game helps you easily compare which games represent the best expected value picks that week. You can quickly identify the games where the consensus sees close odds versus lopsided matchups. This allows you to focus your time analyzing and picking the most competitive and profitable games.
Accounts for Injuries and Situations
Consensus and computer systems adjust their picks as new information like injuries, trades, and depth chart changes emerge during the week. Doing this adjustment yourself for all 32 teams takes a lot of effort. So let computers and crowds do that work for you automatically.
Can Still Pick Underdogs
Consensus and computer picks show the most likely winner against the point spread, not necessarily who will win outright. So they will often predict favorites to cover spreads. But you can still use the percentages to identify live underdog opportunities in closer matchups.
If your own pick aligned with the consensus and computer models, it can give you more confidence you made the right call. And if you disagree, it may prompt further review to make sure you didn’t miss anything before fading the public and projections.
Tracks Your Results
Keeping historical results of your picks against the spread is useful for evaluating and improving your prediction abilities. Comparing your picks against consensus and computer records allows you to see if you are beating the averages consistently.
There are certainly pros and cons to relying fully on consensus and computer picks versus your own analysis. But selectively utilizing these systems as part of your research process can improve your NFL predictions, provide helpful insights, save time, and lead to more profitable picks. So consider adding NFL consensus and computer picks to your football forecasting tool kit this season.